Coolfont Estimate

December 1, 2011

An examination of the history of HIV shows that, despite the hysteria, actual AIDS cases were so rare that the CDC invented the Coolfont Estimate, which estimated the number of HIV-infected persons in the US.  In 1986, a small group of doctors arrived at an estimate of between 1-1.5 million infections – a number extrapolated with, according to epidemiologist James Chin MD, MPH, “two bottles of bourbon” and the Kinsey Report, which estimated the number of homosexuals, IV drug users, hemophiliacs and heterosexuals who were estimated to take part in homosexual acts in 1948.

Although the US population swelled from 228 million  to more than 312 million since the alleged pandemic began, the CDC’s latest reports show that the initial estimates have remain unchanged at 1.2 million; a number that – if true – represents one-third of one percent of the total US population that (coincidentally) engages in self-destructive behavior.

Dr. Chin was one of a dozen experts present when the “Coolfont Estimate” was invented.  He describes it this way:

“The first estimate was in the Coolfont AIDS meeting in West Virginia… in 1986.  There was a small group and I remember that… about a half dozen of us (were there).  And we had to, overnight, come up with an estimate to present to the conference the next day.

“It was after about two bottles of bourbon that we finally came to a consensus that was between one and one-half million.  That estimate has been so good that it’s been consistently used and it’s used at the present time the cumulative number of HIV infections in the United States is between one and one-and-a-half million.  So it was a very good estimate… It was obviously overestimated but it was so good that the CDC has kept that estimate and it’s still valid estimate now.”


Dr. Chin’s complete interview is posted here and here:


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